Categories

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We are in the midst of fast-widening, macro-affecting price and shortage shocks being underestimated by both optimists and pessimists

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On the presumptions we hold about corporate decision-making, and the evidence pointing the other way.

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A summer letter on AI's cognitive dissonance: confident forecasts from data walls to datacenter busts, and the evidence standing in front of each

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Memory makers are on course to be global villains; Seoul must master communication before it is too late

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The moment software started bundling the hardware beneath it, it inherited a BOM and gross margin, and everything that follows from them

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Many lessons from Xiaomi’s frontier-class model buiit from a standing start in a single year

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For decades, tech was the global economy’s most reliable disinflationary anchor. AI has snapped the chain and policymakers are unprepared for the fallout

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Software companies have started a new revenue stream by charging for agentic access. The implications are not all obvious

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A new inequality with massive, long-term geopolitical, economic, corporate, and social consequences

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AI token demand has gone parabolic; supply stayed linear. Cascading impacts could be similar to the 1970s oil shock.